By Dan Atkinson
|
The double-dip recession unveiled late last month sent us on a time-machine trip back to the last such occurrence, 1975.
Labour-market figures on Wednesday ought similarly to trigger a bout of reminiscences about television’s The Good Life, the Bay City Rollers and the England-Australia cricket fixture cancelled thanks to protesters who were convinced that George Davis was innocent, OK?
Ought to. But probably will not.
Long wait: The fact is there is little room for growth in British employment, writes Dan Atkinson
Along with the secondary slump, 1975 was also the year in which unemployment moved decisively above the one million mark and stayed above it â€" often well above â€" until the early part of this century. This week’s figures are certain to show the same measure of joblessness, the claimant count, well above 1.5million in April.
I say ‘the same measure’, but during the past three decades this number has been repeatedly sandbagged by Ministers, who have restricted eligibility for the benefits to which it refers. So while even as a headline figure this is dreadful by the standards of the Seventies, the underlying reality is likely to be far worse.Â
Yet the oddity is that the jobs scene is widely seen to have performed pretty respectably during the Great Recession.
Assuming these things are in the eye of the beholder, then let’s go along with this view of events. That ‘not-bad’ unemployment total inched up a little to 1.61million in March (again, neuralgic by Seventies standards), but the numbers out of work for up to six months dropped by 13,100. In other words, the figures are going sideways.
There was gloom last week as accountant KPMG suggested unemployment would rise as business confidence shrinks. But surely it was ignoring the prospects for jobs as a new pro-growth mood sweeps Europe?
Alas, I fear KPMG’s bean-enumerators are more right than wrong. The fact is, even if the eurozone embarks on a growth binge of Franklin Roosevelt proportions (unlikely), there is little room for growth in British employment. And the reason? We have had it already, in terms of business retaining labour it did not need.
Our dismal productivity numbers (the latest of which are also due Wednesday) tell the tale. Since the end of 2009 there has barely been any productivity growth at all, while unit labour costs have risen quite sharply.
Business already has all the people it needs and any upswing in the economy will simply be a chance to work them harder.
In a sense, the consensus view is right â€" the labour market has performed better than might have been expected in recent years. But because that means unemployment, or at least under-employment, has been inside the workplace rather than down at Jobcentre Plus, there will be a long wait for any rise in the number of job vacancies.
Read more on this topic at atkinsonblog.dailymail.co.uk.
-
John Travolta was BANNED from top New York hotel spa for... -
Covered in her boyfriend's blood: Woman pictured minutes... -
Talk about leaving your mark: Man's best friend does some... -
Frozen in the sands of time: Eerie Second World War plane... -
Just the ticket for popping the question: The tree-lined... -
Princes William and Harry enjoy the glorious weather by... -
Hero Marine dies after rescuing woman, 22, from plane crash... -
A barrel of laughs: The weird and wacky pub signs that will... -
'There was a wonder as Papa was crowned': What Princess... -
Americans consume EIGHTY percent of the world's pain pills... -
Empire Strikes Backstage: Intimate pictures of cast and crew... -
Great, great, great grandma to celebrate Mothers' Day in...
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar