Jumat, 29 Juni 2012

Bill Gates made spot-on predictions of the future in 1987 (but perhaps he thought Microsoft would be behind them, not Google and Apple)

Bill Gates made spot-on predictions of the future in 1987 (but perhaps he thought Microsoft would be behind them, not Google and Apple)

By Eddie Wrenn

PUBLISHED: 10:12 EST, 28 June 2012 | UPDATED: 07:31 EST, 29 June 2012


Seeing the future: A younger Bill Gates knew his technology was world-changing

Seeing the future: A younger Bill Gates knew his technology was world-changing

Bill Gates changed our world, and the odds are that most readers have touched some kind of Windows machine today.

What is startling is the amount of foresight the Microsoft founder had, which is documented in his 1995 book, The Road Ahead, and - even further in past - a 1987 interview where Gates predicted LCD televisions, Siri-style voice recognition, YouTube, Wikipedia, and card-less payments.

One thing which may irk the founder is quite how much of these achievements have come from his fiercest competitors Apple and Google, with Microsoft being a relatively quiet company since the year 2000.

In 1987, the magazine OMNI featured predictions from some of the 'great minds', including Gates, who at the age of 32 was the world's youngest self-made billionaire, with Windows beginning to establish itself as the dominant workplace operating system.

The Smithsonian Magazine has compared Bill's predictions with the world in 2012.

Actually, Gates was specifically asked to predict the world 'in 20 years' time', or 2007, but perhaps only some of them have come true in the last few years.

In 1987, the Internet was just starting up, so it was perhaps it was quite an easy crystal ball to gaze into. But Bill's vision of the Internet, with touches of YouTube and Wikipedia, is still an apt description for today

He said: 'In 20 years the Information Age will be here, absolutely. The dream of having the world database at your fingertips will have become a reality.

'You’ll even be able to call up a video show and place yourself in it. Today, if you want to create an image on a screen - a beach with the sun and waves - you’ve got to take a picture of it.

'But in 20 years you’ll literally construct your own images and scenes. You will have stored very high-level representations of what the sun looks like or how the wind blows. If you want a certain movie star to be sitting on a beach, kind of being lazy, believe me, you’ll be able to do that. People are already doing these things.'

Perhaps that last stage hasn't happened yet - although it has in the visual industries such as movies and video games. But he knew what we would be viewing these on - indeed the third iPad, with its Retina display, certainly matches the next point.

Flashback to 1995: Gates introducing the latest version of Windows 17 years ago

Flashback to 1995: Gates introducing the latest version of Windows 17 years ago

He said: 'You’re sitting at home. You have a variety of image libraries that will contain, say, all the world’s best art.

'You’ll also have very cheap, flat panel-display devices throughout your house that will provide resolution so good that viewing a projection will be like looking at an original oil painting. It will be that realistic.'

Apple's Siri technology also gets the nod, as Bill envisions: 'Also, we will have serious voice recognition. I expect to wake up and say, “Show me some nice Da Vinci stuff,”  and my ceiling, a high-resolution display, will show me what I want to see - or call up any sort of music or video. The world will be online, and you will be able to simulate just about anything.'

Admittedly we do not have televisions on our ceilings yet, but the rest seems close enough.

Recently we have been able to create holograms of long-dead celebrities, with the rapper Tupac being reanimated for a series of show in Las Vegas, among other places.

Bill could see it coming: People want to get involved. It will really start to change the quality of entertainment because it will be so individualised.

Siri was one of the stand-out features of last year's iPhone

Siri was one of the stand-out features of last year's iPhone

'If you like Bill Cosby, then there will be a digital description of Cosby, his mannerisms and appearance, and you will build your own show from that.

'There’s a scary question to all this: How necessary will it be to go to real places or do real things? I mean, in 20 years we will synthesise reality. We’ll do it super-realistically and in real time. The machine will check its database and think of some stories you might tell, songs you might sing, jokes you might not have heard before. Today we simply synthesise flight simulation.'

One thing we have started in 2012 is the path away from plastic: 'A lot of things are going to vanish from our lives. There will be a machine that keys off of physiological traits, whether it’s voiceprint or fingerprint, so credit cards and checks - pretty flimsy deals anyway - have to go.'

And Bill also arguably foresaw entertainment over-indulgence, suggesting: 'Probably all this progress will be pretty disruptive stuff. We’ll really find out what the human brain can do, but we’ll have serious problems about the purp ose of it all.

'We’re going to find out how curious we are and how much stimulation we can take. There have been experiments in which a monkey can choose to ingest cocaine and the monkey keeps going to create some pretty intense experiences through synthesized video-audio.

'Do you think you’ll reach a point of satisfaction when you no longer have to try something new or make something better? Life is really going to change; your ability to access satisfying experiences will be so large.'

What is beyond prediction, however, is what the competition is up to, with Google and Apple sweeping up so much of the innovation, whereas Microsoft - with the exceptions of Xbox and the business side of operations - stalling in terms of invention since Windows XP.

But one thing that is perhaps beyond doubt: The next 20 years will take us a lot, lot further.

Here's what other readers have said. Why not add your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards.

The comments below have not been moderated.

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You know Gates paid the Gaurdian Newspaper to promote him as a saviour. I have a suspicion that might be the case here.

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Anyone can look good predicting what's possible in the future as long as all the incorrect things are forgotten. Computers didn't have much meaning for most people until the arrival of the internet, which Gates played down and didn't have his company at the forefront. Even with computers his only claim to fame is managing to get a hold of the monopoly gangster-style when we needed an operating system. To me there is nothing genius or even ordinary about his judgement or products, apart from the brazen gangster-style monopolizing tactics.

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Apple has been bigger over recent years and has a bigger market capitalisation than Microsoft currently, but I don't think anyone can say that Microsoft has failed or hasn't innovated since 2000. Let's not forget that tablets and touch interfaces were first introduced by Microsoft and then turned into great consumer products by Apple. Apple didn't innovate either of those things, it just made them better, just like portable sound and video and many of its other products. iTunes wasn't an original idea either. Also guess who Apple's single biggest partner is in terms of software for its products? It's Microsoft, but an awful lot of that is behind the scenes and away from the public eye. The big rivalry (apart from the personal rivalry for a time between Jobs and Gates) between the two companies is largely a marketing gimmick used by both of them to their own advantage whilst they cooperate on many projects in the background.

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"Admittedly we do not have televisions on our ceilings yet." ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- He does. In fact, his house contains all of his predictions.

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I remember a conference where Mr gates announced that the internet would not take off and it would be a total waste of time to even consider people using it. How times have changed. Even if you don't like the man or the product, you cannot, ignore his abilities. Oh the good old days of DOS, remember them? or am I just showing my age. RR

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I'm a fan of Bill's to an extent (genius business brain in his heyday, if somewhat anti-consumer). But we're 5 years on from 2007 and many of the ideas he put forward bear little relation to today's tech - we've innovated much more in the information services space (via Internet) than forecast in hardware, which was the focus back in 80s. We may have LCD TVs, but they're not cheap commodity items as forecast, so not dotted around every room of the house, and certainly not light and inexpensive enough to hang off ceilings. Virtual Reality - another 80s obsession - is *far* from a developed, commodity experience. I suppose you could count realistic computer games to an extent, which do often feature a range of natural environments like beaches, forests, cities - but immersive hardware tech (VR gear) still hasn't taken hold in any meaningful way. Browsing the world's best art? Certainly pretty close on that, thanks to net, but held back by copyright restrictions and protectionism.

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So what went wrong then Mr Gates?!- Mrs P, Midlands, UK, 2012/06/29 13:57 ~~~~~# Microsoft were sued into oblivion, that's what.

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I personally think the fact Bill gates did help with apple was not at all misguided but simply because of the type of guy he is, I always get the impression his life has never been solely about the cash in his own pocket, but the general advancement of all humanity, very much an enlightened guy in my opinion. People like himself and Tim Berners-lee should be lauded for what they have given to the world, not what they have taken.

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Bill Cosby? The guy is clueless

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Apple's products are shiny and overpriced, if it wasn't for the gap in the market for smartphone and tablets they would be struggling now. I sincerly hope that Microsofts new OS and Hardware will enable them to catch up to Apple / Google and allow them to dominate the Market once again. I will never say I 'hate' Apple / Google for pushing Microsoft down, as this level of competitiveness can only be good for us, the consumer. I for one, will be ditching my iPad in favour of the Surface, I can only hope they will release a phone version too.

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